Venezuela's chaos: Is China's "throat" for importing South American timber being choked?

Early in the morning of January 3rd local time, the US military launched an air strike on the capital of Venezuela that lasted for about an hour. The targets included military airports, the Ministry of Defense building, and major ports and other key infrastructure. 

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy in Venezuela have simultaneously issued safety alerts: Chinese citizens are advised not to travel to Venezuela for the time being. Those already in the country and institutions should closely monitor the local security situation, enhance preventive measures and emergency preparedness, avoid going out unless necessary, and stay away from conflict or sensitive areas. 

The game between the United States and Venezuela has escalated again. Trump also stated that the United States will indefinitely "dominate" Venezuela and control its oil reserves. The country's oil industry will also be taken over by American companies. There is no doubt that the subsequent moves of the US side will attract close attention from the global industrial and trade chain. 

As the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, Venezuela's natural resources are not limited to oil. It also has a high forest coverage rate and is an important wood producer in South America. It is also one of the significant wood suppliers to China in the region. However, the changes in the situation in Venezuela may have a chain reaction on China's wood imports. 

Venezuela exports a wide variety of high-end broadleaf hardwoods, including green sandalwood, South American teak, Peruvian walnut, cumaru, and ipe. According to customs data, in 2024, Venezuela's wood exports to China reached 47,300 cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 87%. As of November 2025, China's total wood imports declined by 11.2%, while imports from Venezuela only slightly decreased by 2.8%, indicating that China's demand for Venezuelan wood is far more resilient than the overall market level. 

According to industry insiders, Venezuela's crude oil exports have dropped to the lowest level on record due to US President Trump's executive order to "block all crude oil shipments related to Venezuela". Currently, port authorities have not received any instructions to release fully loaded oil tankers, and the country's crude oil exports have effectively come to a complete standstill. 

Although the timber transport fleet has no intersection with the crude oil shipping routes, current intelligence indicates that from December 2025 to January 2026, key Venezuelan ports such as La Guaira and Paraguaná, along with adjacent facilities, have been successively attacked or exploded. The port operations and transportation systems have been impacted. Once the terminals conduct cargo and vessel inspections, the inland transfer of timber and shipping schedules will face secondary delays, and the stability of export supply will also be affected. 

In addition, if the US escalates sanctions on Venezuela's financial system, the bilateral trade settlement between China and Venezuela may be further restricted. 

Although Venezuela's total wood exports to China are far less than those of Brazil, compared with Brazil's main production of eucalyptus and other pines (Pinus), Venezuela's supply is mainly broadleaf hardwoods, which occupy a certain supply share in the Chinese market. Once the tense situation further intensifies and leads to a disruption in its wood supply, the short-term gap cannot be fully filled by softwoods or conventional hardwoods from Brazil, Peru and other countries. Importers will face the dual risks of shrinking supply and price jumps, and the prices of South American woods or the same type of wood may rise due to the substitution effect. 

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