Major ports in Europe and Southeast Asia are experiencing severe congestion. Will Chinese ports face an unprecedented crisis of empty containers?

【Overall Summary】: Due to the continuous escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the congestion at key ports in Southeast Asia is likely to trigger an empty container crisis at Chinese ports in the future. However, the timber transportation route from Europe to Australia remains unobstructed at present, but the fuel cost has slightly increased.

It is reported that currently about 10% of the global container fleet is stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, and there are no signs of easing in the backlog situation. Amid the ongoing pressure on the global shipping environment, the timber transportation route from Europe to Australia remains unobstructed. According to the timber industry media, the goods are mainly transported through two routes:

First, it is transported via the Port of La Spezia in Italy to the Port of Sydney; second, it is transferred through the Port of Venice and the Port of Singapore before arriving at the Port of Brisbane. Business people say that the only risk currently faced by this transportation business is probably the increase in fuel costs.

Manuel Pagnin, the director of Seatram Logistics Company, said, "Currently, all the timber arriving in Australia is shipped from either Northern Europe or the Mediterranean. Since the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea at the end of 2023, the relevant shipping routes have been rerouted to go around the Cape of Good Hope. This alternative route takes 10 to 14 days and has been operating stably for over two years."

Although fuel costs have risen by 10% to 12% at present, Pagnin expects that Australia's supply chain will not suffer major disruptions in the short term. However, he also warns that if the conflict escalates further, causing ships to be delayed at busy Asian ports such as Singapore, a "pile-up" effect could occur within the next two to four months.

However, Pagnin's concerns seem to have come true. It is reported that due to the continuous escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the utilization rate of container yards at the Port of Singapore and the Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia has climbed to 90%, approaching saturation. The average berthing delay for ships has reached 5 to 7 days, and there was once a situation where hundreds of ships were queuing outside the Port of Singapore waiting to enter.

Major European ports have not been spared either. It is reported that the average waiting time for mainline vessels at the Port of Rotterdam has exceeded 30 hours, with barges delayed by more than 20 hours and feeder vessels delayed by 10 hours. According to maritime information from the navigation administration, the congestion at European ports may trigger a chain reaction, posing a risk of container shortage for Chinese ports.

There is an empirical rule in the shipping industry: when European ports are congested for two weeks, the shortage of empty containers in Asia will emerge eight weeks later. Currently, tens of thousands of containers are stranded at European terminals. Based on this calculation, 8 to 9 weeks later, that is, between May and June 2026, China's core hubs such as Shanghai Port, Ningbo-Zhoushan Port and Shenzhen Port may face an "unprecedented" empty container crisis.

Currently, the scale of rerouting of global maritime shipping routes has increased by more than 360% year-on-year, with the highest daily record reaching 2,363 voyages. Shipping companies are actively adjusting their route layouts to avoid operational risks brought about by the unstable situation in the Middle East. In this round of global port congestion, although the timber transportation route from Europe to Australia remains unobstructed for now, there is uncertainty as to whether ships can berth and unload smoothly.

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